Major innovations and tech sea-changes were few and far between in 2013. Unfortunately, what usually follows major advancements are refinements. These days, innovation tends to happen on a nano-scale, which means most people cannot see or experience that evolution.
LCD display technology, for instance, has been around for decades; the changes we’ve lately seen in screen size, width and resolution have, mostly, refined that original idea. Same with Flash-based and solid state storage. We make the technology smaller and more stable but rarely change the fundamentals.
See also: 16 Astronomical Events in 2014 and How to Watch Them
Like 2013, 2014's tech trends may not fundamentally change our lives, but they will improve, alter and, on occasion, impede and frustrate our day-to-day activities.
Bear with me a moment as I gaze into our hazy digital future. Here are a few predictions to emerge from the gloom.
1. Smart Home Tech Explosion
We've discussed the "Internet of Things" for a few years now. Finally, that pithy catchphrase is becoming a reality, though not necessarily how we expected.
When I spoke to appliance manufacturers in early 2011, most applauded the prospect, however, insisted the idea would go nowhere without standards or a common appliance language. As a result, early smart home solutions were overcomplicated, closed-loop affairs that were costly to install and confusing to use.
Nest, the smart home thermostat, proved web-connected appliances and systems could be simple, that is, if they relied on an existing communication language (Wi-Fi) and comprehensible and already-adopted interfaces (iOS and Android).
Granted, Nest was not the first to do this. Home security camera manufacturers like DropCam applied this concept years ago. But while not everyone wants webcam-based home security, every home needs a thermostat. Now Nest is selling smoke detectors, which not only use the same infrastructure to communicate with homeowners, but which connect with other in-home Nest devices, as well.
Similarly, Lockitron lets you lock doors via smartphone. The product has helped encourage other companies, such as Schlage, to introduce their own Internet-ready home security devices.
In 2014, other companies will follow Nest and Lockitron’s lead. They'll shed the last vestiges of proprietary networks and control centers, and along with an explosion of in-home sensors, will help propel the smart home conversion trend in 2014.
2. Privacy Backlash
2013 was supposed to be the year we gave up on privacy. Instead, Edward Snowden set the National Security Agency's (NSA) veil of secrecy ablaze. As a result, by the end of 2013 we all felt exposed. Now many of the companies we trust with our data are under siege, urging the U.S. government to reform its information collection policies. The populace looked on in horror.
There is no easy fix. At least for now, the law (well, at least one judge) dictates NSA phone record-collection practices are constitutional.
If the law won't help us, and companies like Verizon, AT&T, Google, Yahoo and Facebook can't, I predict people will take matters into their own hands. In 2014, they'll look for ways to either pull back from social media and smartphone use or use tools that will help shield their activities.
Expect a new class of privacy protection companies and services to arrive in 2014, ready to meet what is sure to be a growing need.
3. Ads in Everything
We're already used to copious product placement on the sets of our favorite TV shows. Reality TV, sports broadcasts and even most major news segments are sponsored by brands. Scripted content still follows stricter regulations, but as the economics of content change, everything from websites to music companies will look for new ways to connect advertisers with audiences.
The trend took off in 2013 with brand-supported content (Mashable has a program, too). Simply, it's a way for media companies to produce worthwhile content with advertiser backing. Advertisers get to support topics with some connection to their brand ideals and consumer bases.
That success will embolden other product and media categories that have typically steered clear of blatant brand integration. Scripted TV shows will build entire scripts around brands and products. In 2014, you'll laugh about a Coca-Cola joke in Modern Family and guffaw when Molly serves Mike a Big Mac. In the post-CD, all-digital world, music is struggling to find a viable economic model. In 2014, expect pop artists to sing the praises of Nike sneakers and Rice Krispies.
It'll seem kitschy, but in the end reflects strategic commerce in lyrical and scripted disguise.
4. Cloud Wars
You'll hear a stronger desktop PC death rattle in 2014, as consumers finally embrace cloud storage. Consequently, they'll soon need a lot more than the 5-20 GB standard with most mobile services.
Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google will get serious about marketing and advertising consumer cloud storage, access and work options. They'll also compete more directly, which may result in a price-per-gigabyte war.
Microsoft kicked the competition off in 2013 with 200 GB of free cloud storage — with a Surface 2 tablet purchase.
However, most consumers in 2013 still didn't understand how cloud-based storage works. The disparity of tools, interfaces and storage options is "clouding" what should be a clear picture: The days of storing locally are nearing an end.
In 2014, cloud storage producers will conduct an education, pricing and marketing offensive. By the end of next year, external hard drive sales will decline and cloud storage adoption will have skyrocketed.
LCD display technology, for instance, has been around for decades; the changes we’ve lately seen in screen size, width and resolution have, mostly, refined that original idea. Same with Flash-based and solid state storage. We make the technology smaller and more stable but rarely change the fundamentals.
See also: 16 Astronomical Events in 2014 and How to Watch Them
Like 2013, 2014's tech trends may not fundamentally change our lives, but they will improve, alter and, on occasion, impede and frustrate our day-to-day activities.
Bear with me a moment as I gaze into our hazy digital future. Here are a few predictions to emerge from the gloom.
1. Smart Home Tech Explosion
We've discussed the "Internet of Things" for a few years now. Finally, that pithy catchphrase is becoming a reality, though not necessarily how we expected.
When I spoke to appliance manufacturers in early 2011, most applauded the prospect, however, insisted the idea would go nowhere without standards or a common appliance language. As a result, early smart home solutions were overcomplicated, closed-loop affairs that were costly to install and confusing to use.
Nest, the smart home thermostat, proved web-connected appliances and systems could be simple, that is, if they relied on an existing communication language (Wi-Fi) and comprehensible and already-adopted interfaces (iOS and Android).
Granted, Nest was not the first to do this. Home security camera manufacturers like DropCam applied this concept years ago. But while not everyone wants webcam-based home security, every home needs a thermostat. Now Nest is selling smoke detectors, which not only use the same infrastructure to communicate with homeowners, but which connect with other in-home Nest devices, as well.
Similarly, Lockitron lets you lock doors via smartphone. The product has helped encourage other companies, such as Schlage, to introduce their own Internet-ready home security devices.
In 2014, other companies will follow Nest and Lockitron’s lead. They'll shed the last vestiges of proprietary networks and control centers, and along with an explosion of in-home sensors, will help propel the smart home conversion trend in 2014.
2. Privacy Backlash
2013 was supposed to be the year we gave up on privacy. Instead, Edward Snowden set the National Security Agency's (NSA) veil of secrecy ablaze. As a result, by the end of 2013 we all felt exposed. Now many of the companies we trust with our data are under siege, urging the U.S. government to reform its information collection policies. The populace looked on in horror.
There is no easy fix. At least for now, the law (well, at least one judge) dictates NSA phone record-collection practices are constitutional.
If the law won't help us, and companies like Verizon, AT&T, Google, Yahoo and Facebook can't, I predict people will take matters into their own hands. In 2014, they'll look for ways to either pull back from social media and smartphone use or use tools that will help shield their activities.
Expect a new class of privacy protection companies and services to arrive in 2014, ready to meet what is sure to be a growing need.
3. Ads in Everything
We're already used to copious product placement on the sets of our favorite TV shows. Reality TV, sports broadcasts and even most major news segments are sponsored by brands. Scripted content still follows stricter regulations, but as the economics of content change, everything from websites to music companies will look for new ways to connect advertisers with audiences.
The trend took off in 2013 with brand-supported content (Mashable has a program, too). Simply, it's a way for media companies to produce worthwhile content with advertiser backing. Advertisers get to support topics with some connection to their brand ideals and consumer bases.
That success will embolden other product and media categories that have typically steered clear of blatant brand integration. Scripted TV shows will build entire scripts around brands and products. In 2014, you'll laugh about a Coca-Cola joke in Modern Family and guffaw when Molly serves Mike a Big Mac. In the post-CD, all-digital world, music is struggling to find a viable economic model. In 2014, expect pop artists to sing the praises of Nike sneakers and Rice Krispies.
It'll seem kitschy, but in the end reflects strategic commerce in lyrical and scripted disguise.
4. Cloud Wars
You'll hear a stronger desktop PC death rattle in 2014, as consumers finally embrace cloud storage. Consequently, they'll soon need a lot more than the 5-20 GB standard with most mobile services.
Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google will get serious about marketing and advertising consumer cloud storage, access and work options. They'll also compete more directly, which may result in a price-per-gigabyte war.
Microsoft kicked the competition off in 2013 with 200 GB of free cloud storage — with a Surface 2 tablet purchase.
However, most consumers in 2013 still didn't understand how cloud-based storage works. The disparity of tools, interfaces and storage options is "clouding" what should be a clear picture: The days of storing locally are nearing an end.
In 2014, cloud storage producers will conduct an education, pricing and marketing offensive. By the end of next year, external hard drive sales will decline and cloud storage adoption will have skyrocketed.
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